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Structural Model of the Ionosphere and Mechanism of Natural Disasters and Calamities Emerging

Kasumov F.K., Aslanvo F.A., Morzoyev V.B.,Alekperva R.Y.
Azerbaijan Natio9nal Air Space Agency,Baku


Introduction
Studies of the Solar-Earth relations and disturbances which take place in the Sun-Earth system (Further on S-E) show that there is a close connection between them and emerging of natural disasters and calamities. Physics of the precursors is based on the fact that various process in the S-E system occur with different speed. Processes responsible for generation of precursors take place much faster than natural disasters and calamities themselves, due to precursors are born bevore the key process-the calamity itself so warn of its forthcoming in advance. 

Many natural disasters and calamities, earthquakes in particular, generate precursors in the ionosphere and near space. This is whu basing on studies of ionosphere-space precursors we suggest optimal methods to forecast and control natural disasters and calamities using non-traditional methods and means [1-6].

Under space methods we mean a complex set of super ssensitive equipment installed at sputniks. This allows to work out an optimal scenarios for sputnik monitoring of the planet. We have worked out methods of sputnik monitoring which consist of a the following set:
  • sputnik on geostationary orbit -GS
  • interim low flying sputniks on various orbits -LFS
  • surface seismic stations -SSS
Pegging of this system regime of monitoring allow to obtain in advance information on ionosphere-space precursors and emerging of resonance situation [1-6] over any area of the Earth surface. Such approach will ensure timely forecast and control over natural disasters. This problem is difficult to be resolved because physics of precursors and mechanism of their generation prior to natural disasters emerging has not been studied so far.

Problems raised and results of studies.
In order to build reliable calculation techniques for effective forecast and control of natural calamities it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the physics of precursors and mechanism of their generation in various coatings of the Earth: in the near space and ionosphere, on the surface and in the subsurface of the Earth (in the lithosphere). The natural disasters are known to be foretold by various precursors both on the surface of the Earth and in ionosphere and near space [1-8]. Depending on the location of the precursors generation they are divided into geophysical (surface) and space-ionosphere precursors. The source of disturbances that form both surface and space-ionosphere precursors is believed to be of geomagnetic, geoelectric,electromagnetic or acoustic-gravitational nature. Geophysical (surface) precursors include:
  • seimic magnetic precursors 
  • seimic magnetic precursors 
  • piezoelectric precursors 
Space-ionosphere precursors include:
  • generation of small-scale wave disturbances -SWD with 10 second oscillation period caused by propagation of fast acoustic waves in the atmosphere
  • generation of middle-scale waves with the oscillation period of 10 minutes to an hour bu propagation of gravitational waves in the ionosphere and near space
  • generation of oscillations of high frequency-or microseims which also propagate waves in the ionosphere and near space and cause luminescence in the optical and radio range of waves 
  • variaation of the space background-drastic abnormal increase of the space rays energy in the observed in the near space (by about 10 times)
Analysis of manifestations of the space-ionosphere and geophysical precursors allows us to see and compare their advantages and disadvantages. No doubt the earthquakes are such a complicated and multi-facet phenomena that we cannot build our forecast basing only on individual parameters like precursors, as it is impossible to see in advance and to predict the wave range in which resonance will take place and trigger mechanism will be put into operation [1-8]. It is necessary to work out a complex method combining data provided by surface seismic stations with data provided by sputnik surveillance of ionosphere-space effects.

For example, a thorough analysis of geophysical precursors shows that they do occur prior to ssuch a ferocious natural element as earthquake. Nevertheless in some cases they can be born due to other reasons. Besides, generation of precursors does not always mean that a calamity will sure take place, as precursors can rather precisely indicate emerging of a resonance situation which still has to be realized into a calamity. This can be explained by trigger mechanism of self excitation and extinguishing of seismic waves on their way form the Sun to the Earth. This mechanism has not been fully disclosed so far. This is why it is difficult to calculate trigger mechanism and give a reliable forecast of an earthquake basing only n generation of this or that precursor. Only a complex approach should be applied here. On one hand, it is necessary to accurately combine surface precursors with ionosphere ones, on the other hand, to fully clarify situation with the trigger mechanism of self-excitation, extinguishing and transfer of seismic excitation from the Sun to the Earth [1-10].

Currently intensive studies to develop more reliable methods of forecast are being carried on. These studies investigate into potentials of making use of seismic ionosphere anomalies appearing over the zone of an earthquake to come. These studies based on discoveries of seismic ionosphere effects connected with propagation of acoustic infra-sonic and gravitational waves. These discoveries belong to Soviet scientist Birfield Y.G. vand Garantsev A.V. [10].

Response mechanism (reflection of the Earth response to the Solar disturbances) in the upper layers of the atmosphere (ionosphere) and near space.

On one hand, the ionosphere is known to be a super sensitive and dynamic system, and on the other hand, it is common knowledge that the near space has been studied much better than the processes inside the Earth. This is why a reliable control of parameters and processes of ionosphere by means of surface or sputnik methods and means is always possible [12].

Seismic activity generating processes in the atmosphere that confirm the fact of the earthquake emerging and can be called precursors of an earthquake have studied and scientifically substantiated [8,9,11] . But their variety and ambiguousness of their manifestations in ionosphere parameters does not allow yet to build an accurate system of lithosphere-ionosphere intraction and so does not allow to give a reliable forecast system. Variation of parameters suggested to be used as precursors need to be further specified. This has not been done yet, probably, due to the fact that mechanism of seismic focus has not been studied and its satisfactory model has not been built so far. This does not low to understand mechanism of response of the seismic focus to impacts form the outside and outcome (response) of these impacts to the ionosphere. This is why we do not know how the energy of the lithosphere processes reaches the ionosphere and is transformed into corresponding anomalies (precursors ) [1-11].

Taking into account the above said we in our works [1-6] have built a model of seismic focus mechanism (multi-layer condenser model) which establishes a clear bond between ionosphere,lithosphere and the core. This model in principle explains the mechanism of precursors emerging in the atmosphere. We can see from this model that the ionosphere-lithosphere -the core bond is implemented through channels (waveguides), or slanting faults which exit to the surface of the Earth and discharge the into the atmosphere. It is the energy of the seismic focus output into the atmosphere generates precursors. The problem is how this energy generates precursors and how they distribute in concrete layers of the ionosphere and the near space.

Let's elaborate on the physics of precursors distribution in the ionosphere and the near space. It should be noted that the atmosphere itself (the ionosphere ) is a multi-layer medium consisting of several layers which respond to radiation coming from the lithosphere in a number of wavs. Let's discuss the structural model of the ionosphere and its response to radiation coming from an earthquake seismic focus.

Studies of the physics of the atmosphere[7,8-11] allow us to give its structural model. Fig 1 shows the structural model oof the atmosphere, change of its density as the height increase. As seen from Fig.1, the atmosphere of the Earth extends from the surface of the Earth 2 thousands km high and structurally consists of following layers:
  • troposphere, thickness 0-20 km
  • stratosphere, thickness-20-40 km
  • mesosphere, thickness -50-60 km
  • thermosphere, thickness -60-300 km
  • exosphere,thickness -300-1800 km
Besides this one, a more detailed divisions of the atmosphere into layers also exists. Thus starting the height of 40 km to 300 km is known as ionosphere consisting of following layers:
  • ionosphere -D-layer, extending between 40 to 90 km higt with thickness of 50 km
  • ionosphere -E-layer, extending between 90 to 200 km higt with thickness of 130 km
  • ionosphere -F1-layer, extending between 2000 to 250 km high with thickness of 50 km
  • ionosphere -F2-layer, extending between 250 to 300 km high with thickness of 50 km
Table 1 shows quantitative parameters of the Earth atmosphere in the function H - height over the surface of the Earth. These is the most reliable data and is generally accepted [7,8,11]. Over 200 km density of the atmosphere changes within a day, increasing during the day time and decreasing during the night time at the height of 800 km. Decrease of the Solar activity also leads to reduction of the Earth atmosphere density. Data given the table 1 are average daily values.


Increase of the H value with the height is the result of decrease of the molecular mass -m and growth of temperature. Up to the height of 100 km various layers of the atmosphere mix up well enough due to which its molecular composition is sustained at the same level. Higher than that the effect of disassociation of molecules begins to tell. This mainly concerns 02 and higher than that progressive diffusive division of gases the atmosphere consists of takes place. According to the barometric equation. 

P=Po e-Mg/kg * h     (1)

With Po standing for pressure at the level of h=0
The equation (1) shows that the gas pressure in the atmosphere with a constant temperature should decrease exponentially with h value which comes from the equation:
1/H=Mg/RT     (2)

determine the height of homogenous atmosphere.

According to the equation (1), gas pressure in the atmosphere with no mixing up will decline with the height the sooner, the bigger the molecular mass is . This is why relative number of helium (m=4) and hydrogen (m=2) molecules for atomic (m=1) will increase in the atmosphere with the height going up, which leads to value m=2 at the height of over 1700 km. Presence of a hot " hydrogen crown " around the Earth, as well as of atoms of helium is confirmed by spectrum surveys [7,8,11].

It is very important to know these average parameters of the daily change of the atmospheric condition to detect variations of properties related directly to ionosphere - space precursors of calamities . It is the abnormal changes of the atmosphere that can serve as reliable precursors to build forecast of natural disasters to come.

As studies in the field of sputnik monitoring show [11,12], heights in the range of 200 to 1200 km are the most optimal to register precursors of natural disasters in. As for registration of precursors in the ionosphere, the most optimal are the heights in the range of 100 to 500 km. Ionosphere is of great interest to us in this regard: layers D,E,F1 andF2 prove to be the most sensitive for detection and registration of precursors . See Fig. 1.

So the most valuable information on precursors can be obtained from low flying sputniks-LFS with the height of their orbit within 200-800 km range, because precursors of earthquakes are born right on this level. Let's elaborate on the physics of precursors, mechanism of their emerging and combine them with the change of the orbit and organization of sputnik monitoring.

Seismic ionosphere effects, distinguished by the methods of vertical sounding.
Analysis of studies in this area [7,8,11] shows that from methodological point of view the sputnik monitoring is aiming at organization of precise surveillance from sputniks of variations of the precursors properties in the ionosphere and near space and pegging of the data on processes taking place on the Sun (for this purposes results of surveillance of the state of the Sun taken by geostationary sputniks shall be used). See. Fig. 1.

Vertical sounding of precursors and synchronic operations of sputniks (LFS,GS and SSS ) can be successfully implemented under the condition that a clear technique of consecutive sounding has been developed. This technique consists of following processes:
  • sounding from below and registration of seismic effects, increase of critical frequencies in the following layers: F, E and D
  • sounding from below above (registration of the variations of properties made from sputniks ) of F,E and D layers, radioscopy of the atmosphere
  • sounding of variations of electromagnetic radiation-precursors of earthquakes and emerging of seismic ionosphere precursors 
  • comparison of data provided by SSS with data supplied by LFS and GS
To give an explanation of the seismic focus mechanism and the core-lithosphere-ionosphere bond it is necessary to understand mechanism, physics of precursors emerging by detecting the "carrier" of disturbances. Infra sonic waves act bas such "carriers". These waves are born on the Sun and are transmitted to the Earth. They excite the subsurface of the Earth, then they reach the ionosphere and turn into disturbances at the level of dynamo-the area of ionosphere, variations of atmospheric OH-4 radiation of the lithosphere, etc. [1-6,8]. Carriers of disturbances generate precursors in the ionosphere. They are born as response of the Earth to the Solar disturbances and once having reached different layers of the atmosphere: D,E and F layers, they create seismic ionosphere effects. These effects appear long ahead the calamity itself and so serve as its precursors.

Conclusion
The technique developed by us allows:
  • to give a scientific substantiation of the methods of abnormal variations to build a forecast of natural disasters
  • to successfully implement sputnik monitoring, to give a reliable forecast of natural disasters with establishing the physics of the precursors and their distribution in the near space with structure of the ionosphere taken into account.

Fig. 1 Structural model of the atmosphere and layout of the sputnik monitoring of the planet 

GS - sputnik on the geostationary orbit
LFS - low flying sputnik
SSS - surface seismic stations
Table 1 has following abbreviations: p -density, T-temperature, H-height of homogenous atmosphere, P-pressure, n- a number of molecules in cub sm, m, molecular mass; number standing aside in each column is the degree of 10 to multiply a value in the column by.
km TK H km P mbr P kg\mg n m   Name of the layer
0 288.1 8.47 1.01 3 1.29 2.63 19 28.97   Troposphere
10 223.2 6.53 2.65 2 4.13-1 0.69 19 28.97   
20 216.6 6.39 5.51 1 8.89 -2 0.19 19 28.97   Stratosphere
30 226.5 6.74 1.20 1 1.84 -2 0.40 18 28.97   Ozonosphere
40 250.3   2.87 0 4.00 -3 0.86 17 28.97   Ionospsr. D
50 270.6 8.01 7.98 -1 1.03 -3 0.22 17 28.97 1.54  
60 255.8   2.25 -1 3.06 -4 0.66 16 28.97   
70 219.9   5.52 -2 8.74 -5 0.16 16 28.97   
80 190.6   1.08 -2 1.95 -5 0.42 15 28.97   
90 190.5   1.09 -3 3.46 -6 0.74 14 28.97 1.95 Ionospr. E
100 202.7 6.43 3.54 -4 5.94 -7 0.3 14 28.97   
In the minimum of the Solar activity
120 334 10.6 3.64 -5 3.56 -8 0.82 -12 27.1   
140 508 17.4 8.78 -6 5.38 -9 0.13 12 25.9   
160 615 22.3 3.20 -6 1.54 -9 0.39 11 24.6   
180 685 26.3 1.41 -6 5.76 -10 0.15 11 23.3   
200 732 29.9 6.90 -7 2.51 -10 0.71 10 22.1 3.65 Ionosph F1
250 790 37.2 1.56 -7 4.64 -11 0.15 10 19.4   Ionosph F2
350   40.1 1.43 -8 3.53 -12 0.13 9 16.4   
400 800 50 5.05 -3 1.16 -12 0.47 8 15.5   
500 800 64.7 8.40 -10 1.54 -13 0.79 7 12.2   
600 800 105.7 2.42 -10 2.80 -14 0.23 7 7.7   
800 800 221.8 7.00 -11 4.08 -15 0.65 6 3.9   
1000 800 276.4 3.14 -11 1.55 -15 0.29 9 3.3   
In the maximum of the Sun activity
120 379 12.5 22.7 -5 1.93 -8 0.45 12 26.8   
140 690 27.6 8.11 -6 3.26 -9 0.79 11 25.8   
160 970 38.8 4.44 -6 1.23 -9 0.31 11 25   
180 1280 47 2.79 -6 6739 -10 0.6 11 24.4   
200 1405 53.3 1.87 -6 3.91 -10 0.10 11 23.8   
250 1566 64.1 8.02 -7 1.38 -10 0.38 10 22.4   
300 1642 72.6 3.86 -7 5.95 -11 0.16 10 21   
350 1676 79.6 2.00-7 2.85 -11 0.90 9 19.8   
400 1690 86 1.10 -7 1.47 -11 0.49 9 18.8   
500 1698 96.9 3.67 -8 4.49 -10 0.16 9 17.3   
600 1700 106.7 13.7 -8 1.57 -12 0.61 9 16.2   
800 1700 130.7 2.50 -9 2.47 -13 0.11 8 14   
1000 1700 181.7 6.61 -10 5.04 -14 0.29 7 10.6   


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