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Sed Model: Sun-Spots, Robby's Vortices, Two-Spin Effect Solitonic Decision of Sed Mechanism

Kasumov F.K., Aslanov F.A
Azerbaijan National Aerospace Agency (ANASA)-Baku.

Achievements of space science during last years brought us closely to understanding of physics of solar-earth disturbances ("SED"). However, to construct a SED rigorous mathematical model, the mechanism of seismic excitation in the Sun-earth ("S-E") system is required to be considered. Such a model is required to construct dynamic model of earthquakes.

Presently, it is found that earthquakes originata for several reasons (They are five -six) . but in all reasons the mechanism in self-excitation of seismic waves "S-E' system takes part in one was or another. Therefore, to crate a theoretical model of earthquakes and to calculate the trigger and release mechanisms , mathematical model for mechanism of seismic excitation in the "S-E" model is required to be develop, and various versions of scenarios occurred have to considered.

Dynamical model of earthquakes [1-2], proposed by us and constructed on the base of resonance theory for coincidence of seismic waves within different frequency ranges wuth the Earth's eigenoscillations, can be successfully implemented on the base of developing the SED theory taking all causes and mechanisms which generate them into account. Let's consider the main causes of initiating earthquakes, which are currently known.
  1. maxima of solar activity, which are related with coincidence of different cycles.
  2. tidal mechanism-tide-rasing forece4s of the Moon and of the other planets in solar system.
  3. coincidence of "S-E" resonance oscillations related with the Earth revolution round the sun;
  4. origination of D-waves and trigger mechanism for exciting the small interplanetary magnetic fields; origination of origination of regundant pressure zone in atmosphere ( high pressures, cyclones in ionosphere. ). Antheropogenci ( technogenic )man's activity on the planet's scale, is also the cause for origination of earthquakes. In particular case, it is :
  5. anthropogenic ( technogenic ) man's activity ( turns of river's beds, creation of man-mode water reservoirs , intensive exploitation of mineral deposits, building of hydrotechnical.
  6. man-initiated explosion ( nuclear tests, large-scale industrial explosions, starts for rockets ).
These causes can be grouped into three groups.
  1. Group A- causes (1,2) related with SED;
  2. Group B-causes (5,6) related with anthropogenic man's activity.
  3. Group T- causes (3,4), so called " quiet earthquakes, related with excitation of small magnetic fields (ESMF) in interplanetary medium.
Each of above-listed groups ahs its trigger mechanism for excitation and initiation of earthquakes, though they have many common things. An if the first A-B groups of causes are to some extent studied, then T-group has been studied very poor, its nature hasn't been studied completely. Therefore, 'T" group of causes-"quiet" earthquakes-are hardly predictable today & they just provide great hazard, since the mechanism for trigger excitation of small interplanetary magnetic fields ( "ESIMF") hasn't been studied. Ignoring even one of causes listed, whole design technique for prgnosis of earthquakes can be reduced to nothing ( zero ). Therefore, it's so important to study each of o cause in details, and to develop respective design technique, and to consider various versions of scenarios and trigger mechanisms causing them.

1. SED trigger mechanism, causes of group "A"
Consider, firstly , SED trigger mechanism ( group A). so, there is correlational link is group A6 which is found between growth and evolution of solar-spots ("SS"0 on the sun's surface, between its cycles and activity, and cause for origination of earthquakes and other natural disasters and catastrophes. Just as a result of rotating the spots, seismic waves are focused and so-called Rossby's vartices are originating . SS are the resonators and exciters of powerful seismic waves [3-10] .

As a result of coincidence of "SS" rotation axes with the Earth's rotation axis, i.e. their parallelism ( orgination of Rossby's vortices, solutions ), seismic waves are transferred and amplified through space medium ( space plasma ) form the sun to the earth due to origination of so-called " Spin-effect " .

This effect consist in tow rotating system-" spins"-which act as likely charged particles scattering in different directions when approached. Just in this manner the Earth's seismic excitation is enhanced due to increasing he solar activity and rotational speed of sun-spots ( vortices of plasmoides ). For mathematical describing these mechanisms of seismic waves excitation, the model for solution [3-10] is the mot acceptable.

Condition for transition of resonance situation ("RS") to implementation of catastrophe of particular type ( "RK"), according to the cause of group A, is operation of release mechanism. Just within this time interval for RS-RK, forerunners of catastrophes, which outstrip and predetermine their occurrence, take place.

These conditions are satisfied for simultaneous coincidence of four independent factors A, B,C,D,/1-2/. These factors are the following.
  1. flares at the sun, curling the magnetic force lines in sun-spots, orgination of shock waves;
  2. focusing the seismic waves in sun-spots within narrow ranges -1-1Hz.
  3. coincidence of spots' rotational axes with Earth's rotational axis, their paraelism ( occurrence of spin-effect hazard);
  4. break-out of caused seismic ray through coronal holes and their interaction with sites of orinfor earthquakes.
If assume total probability of event as a unit, the share of in depending events is 1/4 , or 0,25, then the total probability of simultaneous coincidence and action of all four factors P is the product of each of them, i.e.

P=AXBXCXD = (0,25)4    (1)

According to condition 91), trigger mechanism of excitation ( "TME") transits to resonance situation -"RS"- for tending of TME energy to some ( critical ) limit E cr, i.e.

TMB -------RS     for TMB---------E cr     (2)

Transition of resonance situation RS to implementation of particular catastrophe-"RK"- is due to origination of bifurcation ( peculiarities ) in function of catastrophes. According to catastrophes ' theory /8/ , this function consistsin the sum of two function:

Cat (1,k)= C G (1) + pert (1,k)     (3)

Where
Cat 91,k) is catastrophes ' function;

CG (1) is function of catastrophe's growth;

Pert 91,k0 is function of catastrophe's disturbance . Thus, taking the conditions (1,2,3) into account, TMB tends to "RS" for "RS" tending to Ecr, and 'RS" tends to "RK" for equal to Ecr, i.e. is expressed mathematically as following;

TMB--------RS-------RK     for TMB = Ecr     ( 4)

Beside ' classical " scenarion developed by us for dynamic model of earthquakes, taking SED/1-2/ into account, there are at least, two more trigger mechanisms from "B" and "T" groups of causes.

II Trigger mechanism of causes from group "B" .
This group is related with anthropogenic man's activity and various types ofg mechanisms generating extreme stresses inside the Eath's crust, which produce earthquakes. Trigger mechanism of such catastrophes is related with ' accumulation " of stresses inside the earth's crust and the with unexpected release of this energy in stressed areas of the earth's crust. Accumulating process of solitary wave ( soliton ) promoting discharge of accumulated energy and its sudden dissipation which is expressed in orgination of catastrophes. In water environment ( in sea, ocean) it ( solitary wave produces tsunmi ( seaquake ). Trigger mechanism of this phenomenon is complex enough and studied insufficiently in details. But Inspite of this, general method of transition according to (4) - TMB ----RS-----RK scheme, proposed by us, can be quietly used in given case, under condition of more detailed study of mechanism for trigger exciting the stresses in the earth's crust and origination of forerunners related with anthropogenic man's activity.

III Trigger mechanism of causes from group "T".
This group is related with fine processes of quantum-mechanical nature, which are occurred in cosmic space in the "S-E" system, with trigger mechanism of exciting the interplanetary magnetic fields- " TTM " which result in excitation of seismic waves within frequency range of 0, 1-2, 001 Hz and mere. These "MM" ( "IMF" ) have a service of specific peculiarities which display themselves in wide stress ranges of 10-10 Gauss. Trigger mechanism of these fields provokes the socalled " quiet " earthquakes.

One of such variations produces apparently origination of so-called D-waves which propagated inside the earth's curst at velocity of 16,6 km/year. They excite themselves at " meeting " with tectonic crack and produce a resonance situation resulting in catasrophe. In aseismic regions they produce large-scale accidents at various industrial objects. So, e.g. accident at Chernobyl atomic power station ( APS) is related with displaying trigger excitation of such type in weak magnetic fields. This resulted in breakage of pipelines in APS, provoked disruption of process in APS and led to accident. Such type of earthquakes can orginate due to redundant pressure in ionosphere . it is related with both anthropogenic man's activity ( underground nuclear tests starts of rockets ), and with natural phenomena, origination of zones with redundant pressure in ionosphere, influence of weak "MM" ( "IMF's "), etc.

In Zones of seismic hazarded these factors can excite the sites of earthquakes origin and cause catastrophe. In this manner and case, the technique proposed by us can be success fully applied. The difference consists in necessity of precise setting TMB data of phenomena and specific forerunners occurred.

Finally, note that we have developed a generalized logical mathematical model of earthquakes, based on resonant coincidence in frequencies of oscillations coming from outer sources ( the sun, the moon, planet of solar system, anthropogenic man's activity ) with the Earth's eigenoscillations. The model is presented in fig. 1.


Fig .1. Generalized logical scheme of origination and realization of catastrophes and its mathematical model.

Fig. 1. assumes the following notations :

P - collection of causes;
GP - group of causes;
TMBC - Trigger mechanism of excitation in various environments ;
VRS - Variation of resonance situation.
S - scenario;
CSM - operation of release mechanism
TK - catastrophes theory
RK - realization of mechanism;
TTM - theory of trigger mechanism;
MM - mathematical model;
PK - forerunners of catastrophes;
RSM - desing of release mechanism;
L and T - location and time of catastrophe respectively;
F - force of catastrophe ( on Richter's scale of earthquake );
P - prognosis
MP - model for prognosis

Fig .1 shows that whole collection of causes P is subdivided into causes groups A,B, and T. Each of these groups has its trigger mechanism TMBC in various environments. These groups produce various variations of resonance situation -RS, which are grouped into particular scenarios -S. one of these scenarios dependent on groups of causes results in operation of release mechanism -SM for satisfying the conditions ( 1,2,3,4) and in realization of catastrophe.

At the bottom of Fig. 1 there is a mathematical model MM which is based on creating theory of trigger mechanism (TTM) on criteria of TMB transition to resonance situation RS. using the methods of catastrophes ' theory-TK. Fig. 1. defines the conditions for design of release mechanism RSM which is just a model for prognosis ( MP). It accurately predicts the site and time of catastrophe and its force ( magnitude ) - F on Richter scale. Prognosis is made up with account of catastrophes ' forerunners ("PK") originated.

On the base of logical scheme proposed by Fig. 2 suggests generalized algorithm of catastrophe prognosis:


fig. 2. Algorithm of prognosis of catastrophe : transformation of trigger mechanism TMB into resonance situation RS; operation of release mechanism-CSM, realizat5ion of catastroph -RK .

TMB-------RS-------CSM-------RK (5)

This algorithm is entered into computer memory is related with data of instruments both ground-based and spaceborn . on the base of data, accurate and reliable prognosis of natural disasters, earthquakes in this case, is provided . presently, ANASA is developing the " Cosmoseismica ' project /1/ which is of interest on world -wide scale.

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